Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-02-02 23.897671 26.408538 29.260048 32.782147 37.079784 42.242955 49.062118
2025-02-09 20.377184 23.755235 27.979565 33.837425 42.095214 53.965344 73.847949
2025-02-16 17.544189 21.281687 26.316339 34.007745 46.401662 67.947119 117.025725
2025-02-23 15.521729 19.440567 25.055989 34.406421 51.579446 88.585778 221.636832
2025-03-02 13.993366 17.990910 24.024287 34.873049 57.516792 119.995616 633.019736
2025-03-09 12.723892 16.698738 22.953572 34.956875 63.153798 165.538506 24169.724211
2025-03-16 11.811826 15.800289 22.329378 35.694375 71.371772 259.576891 NaN
2025-03-23 10.947912 14.852650 21.437406 35.616162 77.825306 417.957436 NaN
2025-03-30 10.293857 14.156229 20.861371 36.059548 87.063201 909.316132 NaN
2025-04-06 9.754861 13.582177 20.407323 36.658131 98.481023 4949.594954 NaN
2025-04-13 9.400427 13.275589 20.405129 38.421166 119.514461 NaN NaN
2025-04-20 8.873231 12.613294 19.595259 37.751415 127.072871 NaN NaN
2025-04-27 8.409169 12.053054 18.983252 37.693362 142.055216 NaN NaN
2025-05-04 8.053970 11.660298 18.677104 38.538937 170.724828 NaN NaN
2025-05-11 7.665638 11.174814 18.111401 38.421412 194.153524 NaN NaN
2025-05-18 7.340426 10.778681 17.690226 38.686619 230.077799 NaN NaN
2025-05-25 7.055314 10.433373 17.336726 39.101213 281.256659 NaN NaN
2025-06-01 6.775000 10.074421 16.905440 39.098840 336.394443 NaN NaN
2025-06-08 6.560968 9.824916 16.696051 39.917582 455.278412 NaN NaN
2025-06-15 6.320988 9.506945 16.284219 39.774474 565.037904 NaN NaN
2025-06-22 6.129304 9.269351 16.037692 40.275071 813.120952 NaN NaN
2025-06-29 5.960322 9.064146 15.845325 40.973267 1369.058340 NaN NaN
2025-07-06 5.854010 8.975323 15.932003 43.088328 6543.686278 NaN NaN